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Feature Article
Shifting Sands: Changing Power Dynamics in Royal Family Politics 2010-01-07
While the crown prince basks in the limelight following his triumphal return to the Kingdom, the trajectory of son Khalid's career continues its ascent. Meanwhile, Muhammad bin Nayif and others of his generation begin to make their mark.

by Senior Analyst Talal Kapoor

Crown Prince Sultan's extended stay abroad for medical care fundamentally altered the dynamics of the royal family. Prior to his suddden departure to Geneva, followed by trips to New York and a period of recuperation in Aghadir, it was widely felt that the future course of the Al Saud could be charted with some predictability. The king had managed, surprisingly, to settle the succession issue with the creation of the Bay'ah (Allegiance) Committee, though questions remained about its implementation in practice. The general view was that the crown prince would succeed Abdallah, followed some time thereafter by the accession of Salman or another of his senior brothers. The main areas of concern were Sultan's precarious health, with the possibility of a rapid succession of aging kings, leading to an unsatisfactory gerontocracy, and the lack of certainty over the actual degree of influence certain of the royals, such as Nayif, held, as well as the place of the al-Sudayri faction in the overall picture.

Moreover, it seemed that Abdallah had arranged the outcome of the succession to deal with the Sudayris and cement a place for the younger generation in a manner which was acceptable to all. It was understood that the Sudayri brothers would give up their hopes for securing a future dynasty based on their family line, at least in any immediate way, in return for a tacit understanding that Nayif would take his place in the succession, apart from anything the formal apparatus of the Bay'ah might have provided. In this way Abdallah ensured that succession would eventually pass to capable members of the third generation of princes, even if it took some time to work through the implications of the massive and extended Sudayri power network. At the same time, Abdallah promoted, to the extent he was able, the interests of those he favoured, while being forced to abandon any hopes he might have harbored at the beginning of his reign to see an actualization of his plans when confronted with the realities of a very entrenched opposition, in the form of his own brothers, who, although they may have given up on dreams of seeing themselves on the throne within their own lifetimes, were pushing hard to advance the interests of their offspring. In the end, family consensus saw to it that the necessary compromises were taken, and the senior royals settled into a comfortable accomodation.

Two trends emerge from the long period of conflict resolution within the family in the years following Abdallah's coming to power- the surprising extent to which the king has been able, starting out with a small power base and a limited number of supporters, has been able to impress the stamp of his personality on the form of the Saudi state, proving beyond all doubt his consummate political skills, and the continuing tenacity of al-Sudayri ambitions. This has obscured other, less visible shifts in domestic family politics during that time. While in some cases it is too early to tell whether certain events herald a change in the hierarchy, other times it is obvious that the interests of some family members are being promoted, or others have fallen out of favor for various reasons. Cases in point are the king's son Mish'al, appointed governor of troubled Najran province, or the obscure circumstances surrounding the disappearance of Bandar bin Sultan from view. On a more general level, however, the rise to prominence of a number of younger princes from an unexpected quarter does signal a new trend.

The stars of Muhammad bin Nayif, Deputy Security Minister, and Deputy Defense Minister Khalid bin Sultan are undoubtably rising. Muhammad has been for most of his career overshadowed by his powerful father and uncle Ahmad at the Ministry of Interior, while Khalid had fallen out of favor after the Gulf War for pressing his claims a little too ambitiously, it was thought. Now the "security princes" are at the forefront of a new wave.

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